An older and more ethnically diverse clientele with limited free time will redefine the beauty business in the next decade. Things will never be the same.

"The traditional foundation of the beauty business is a fairly Caucasian, youthful model," explains Ryan Mathews, a futurist at FirstMatter (www.firstmatter.com) in Eastpointe, Michigan, and co-author of The Myth of Excellence. Yet, he notes, the two fastest-growing cohorts are older and not necessarily Caucasian.

"This means the current models of beauty and health are not sustainable. Salons will change their palettes of nail polish, make-up and hair color, not only for ethnic clients but because most make-up today is too red for older skin tones."

Mathews predicts "Spas will need to rethink what's healthy; for 60-year-olds, is it six-pack abs or is a 16-ounce can acceptable?"

In noting that the glorification of youth can't continue, Mathews isn't being imaginative. By the year 2015, more than 100,000 Americans will be more than 100 years old. Mature clients will want to live longer while looking better, but their definition of looking good and being healthy won't be the same as it is for 25-year-olds—it can't be.

Upheaval 2010

We are on the cusp of a generational turning. Such turnings, say experts, always lead to upheaval, and the generations stepping up beginning in 2005 aren't replicants of the baby boomers—either as clients or employees.

Just a few differences: Gen-X and beyond have a more multicultural definition of beauty and an expanded idea of adornment.

Says Ronald Jacob Harder, founder of FutureConnections (www.futureconnections.com) an ethnographic trending consultancy in Providence, Rhode Island: "Much of what has been specific to subsectors—cosmetic surgery, tattoos—has now gone mainstream, opening up new possibilities for cosmetic displays. A new universal cultural surge may establish new, creative, beautifying norms, and this in itself will impact the services salons and spas offer.

What's on the horizon may be not only medically oriented procedures but also henna body painting, nail art, dental bleach-ing, piercings and even bald-by-choice and bikini adornment. Already, while boomers are reaching for the skin lightening cremes and sun protectors, 20-somethings are flocking to tanning centers in record numbers.

Adds Mathews, "Separation of sexes is a boomer idea; the salon that delivers a certain look will attract young men and women."

In the new salon

Population shifts will make target marketing of salon clientele critical, but the effects of change won't stop there. "Salons that target the next youth market will need ethnic employees. You have to be part of the market to stay on the edge of style," says Mathews.

As boomers start to feel their collective mortality, Gen-Xers will assume responsibility, and Millennials will try to make their mark. Tomorrow's workers won't be blindly loyal; they want a casual, carefree workplace and expect to have impact without paying dues. They'll also demand flexible working hours, which could make manning the chair between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. more challenging.

On the boomer client front, some retirees will be available to fill chairs in the daytime hours, but these women, who spent most of their lives in the workforce, will have second careers and spend time volunteering, says Mathews. They will have as little time for themselves as they did when they were working. And when in the salon, they won't have patience for stylists with facial tattoos or the style of the moment.

"Time constraints will affect the industry hugely," says Mathews. "Salons will need extended hours; mobile services will grow. Client mobility itself will become an issue as people age. You may have to pay more to make labor available or train older stylists and eat the training costs."

Bringing the service to the client, a practice that can give young employees the freedom they want, is already gaining ground. For the mature and moneyed, www.spacamp.com is just one business offering at-home spa parties. In cities, stylists are traveling to teach grooming as part of self-esteem for groups such as the "Etiquette Girls" at Green Trails Elementary School in Chesterfield, Missouri.

In the broadest trend, successful salons will evolve into mini spas, and spas will become true wellness centers. Extended-service salons that provide a temporary escape, delivering maximum value in a limited time frame, will lead to high-intensity services.

"It's all about multi-servicing," says Jeanine Recckio, a futurologist at Mirror Mirror Imagination Group in New York. "In 2010, the chairs are speed servers; several services will be done at the same time. Salons and spas can bill more for the same hour thanks to multi-task services."

Of course, there are less rushed models. The price of modern life is the breakdown of community, notes Mathews; people are always looking for a "third place" beyond work and home as a social center (hence, Starbucks' appeal). Here, salons can excel. While Mathews agrees delivering more in a shorter time frame will matter, he also foresees networking salons, in which groups of people such as attorneys drop in during the day.

"There may be a combination business center/salon, which could be a cyber salon," says Mathews. "The client will limit the degree of interruption during pampering."

Nail and color bars are just the seedlings of the salon as social center, in which infotainment takes a front seat. At Beauty and the Book, a combination book store/beauty salon in Jefferson, Texas, women drive for up to five hours to get highlights, read or meet authors at the salon's companion book club, the Pulpwood Queens of East Texas. At New York's Beehive salon, clients enjoy the services of a tarot-card reader and a DJ.

"Salons and spas will be the new 'let's have lunch' places. At Cosmoprof, we saw hairchairs for two—cozy little sofas with double dryers," adds Recckio.

Health at Last

The last 20 years spotlighted clients' race against aging. Now the emphasis is on living well as they age, and longevity services will emerge in salons and spas.

The spa of the future won't be the old weight-loss/health-spa model, because the starving and endless exercising that worked at age 32 won't play at 52. Mathews says the new wellness spa will have an accredited medical staff that performs a detailed health analysis and provides a sensible regimen, while delivering other services that have a concrete medical basis in emotional and psychological benefits. Massage, aromatherapy and oxygen bars come to mind—the latter is known to make people feel good when they're tired.

"The advantage is that clients will return to have their progress monitored. With customized programs, the more participation the greater the benefit," says Mathews.

One model already exists in the fitness industry at Chicago's Lifestart Wellness Network. The company owns and manages centers or scaled-down health clubs that target the "deconditioned" market (those who rarely exercise and eat poorly). In addition to basic exercise equipment, the centers provide a medically oriented program of assessment, screenings and follow-up to keep members healthy.

A hybrid between the day and destination spa, the stay-over spa, may also emerge. With the same goods and services being offered in health clubs, however, differentiation will be key. Ambiance is one thing that will separate the spa from the fitness industry's wellness center.

"Mega-salons and spas that have everyone seated in a line are dated," says Recckio. "Cozy, intimate ambiences are much more refreshing."

Business models and
learning curves

The way salons do business, the product lines they carry and the way they learn will also change, due to corporate consolidation. Currently, almost half of professional product manufacturing is controlled by international corporations. Jim Davis, the director of business development for the International Chain Salon Association (ICSA), says that by 2010, 80 percent of the business will be controlled by non-American companies.

One upshot is that many salons will have the choice to adapt to the European business model.

"Salons will gain economic benefits from agreeing to carry all the lines of one corporation," notes Davis. "In the European model, there's less concern with price and more support given for the prices you pay. A salon will be able to get furniture free if it agrees to carry all the company's lines for a certain number of years."

Other changes Davis sees: more uniformity in product promotion and education, increased business education and fewer hairdressers as stars. Corporate representatives will appear at corporate shows, perhaps making the salon owner the one young staffers will look up to again.

At Altobelli Salons and Spas in Minneapolis, Rocco Altobelli notes there are already limited places for younger hairdressers to get on stage and educate. This opens the door for alternative educational channels and mobile educators.

As the ethnic population increases, the challenge will be getting education about ethnic hair care into the marketplace. At a recent ICSA gathering, Ursula Dudley Ogelsby of Dudley Products noted that ethnic consumers spend more on haircare, need more products to keep their hair healthy and care about hair health. Her advice: Be proactive now; don't react to change. Online learning, CD-ROM and DVD education will fill the gaps.

The next big ideas

When it comes to the specific products and services that will sell, it depends on your clientele. But if you can substantiate that something enhances health, longevity or good looks, there will be a market for it.

Cosmeceuticals, whether they are high-tech or anti-oxidant based, are poised to take off. According to Datamonitor, by 2006 cosmeceuticals will account for $3.5 billion or 42 percent of the total skin care market; triceuticals (incorporating trichology) will represent $1 3 billion or 36 percent of the overall hair care market.

In the future, you will be able to better substantiate the effectiveness of these new products because right now, biotech companies are developing and testing them and selling them to cosmetic companies. Watch for new attempts to create a legally defined cosmeceutical category as these partnerships evolve.

Comments Datamonitor research analyst Tanya Seaton, "Cosmeceuticals for anti-aging will be big, but so will products for acne, cellulite or to inhibit body hair."

Datamonitor analyst Erlina Hendarwan says efficacious skin care and hair care will also attract men. While men in the United States currently spend $80.5 million on skin care and $270 million on hair care, the "male boom" has yet to go sonic.

"Salons and spas that are part of a gym or well-being center will be in the best position," says Hendarwan. "Focus on lifestyle and go where men are; don't expect them to come to you. Younger men are different, but it will take 20 more years for them to change the market."

Naturally, hair color will continue to challenge cuts as the biggest dollar producer. Artec founder Leland Hirsch says young people will never accept going gray; in the next 10 years, color will only get more dramatic in response to their sense of style.

Affordable hair replacement in the form of natural-looking lace pieces is also positioned to take off.

But whether you evolve your health and longevity services or add body adornment experts, there is one thing you can rely on to attract clients from all cohorts. Tomorrow's consumer will choose values over value, making respect, honesty and reliability more important than product or price.

"Fundamental values are not age-sensitive," says Mathews. "People want honesty, respect, trust and recognition: trust and honesty are qualities lacking in our personal, institutional and commercial experiences. In the future, ethical connectivity will matter most, and if you recognize me, are happy to see me, take good care of me and bring me something new that you thought would be right for me, I'll do business with you."